Who can REALLY
help Republicans win in 2025?
When you compare the records of the announced and presumptive GOP gubernatorial candidates as individual vote-getters AND party leaders, there is no comparison. By far, Jack Ciattarelli is superior.
Ciattarelli won Democratic-leaning districts three times.
Ciattarelli never represented a state legislative district with a Republican registration advantage. Despite that, he won three races (2011, 2013, 2015) – and in all three, fewer than 25% of registered voters in the district were Republicans.
In fact, the district Ciattarelli won three times voted for Clinton by 17% in 2016, and for Biden by a staggering 24% in 2020.
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Jon Bramnick has won tough districts, but never a district where Republicans comprise fewer than 27.7% of the registrants; and in the 2023 victory that his campaign touts, Republicans made up over 29% of the registrants.
Jack Ciattarelli energized the Republican base AND won over swing voters.
Ciattarelli won the state’s reddest counties (Ocean, Sussex & Cape May) with a larger percentage than both President Trump and Governor Christie (2009).
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Jon Bramnick’s overt hostility to Republican voters who support President Trump will assuredly lead to a softening of base support in a general election.
Jack Ciattarelli had massive Republican coattails down ballot in 2021.
In 2021, Republicans won more than one hundred local, county and state races, including defeating two incumbent Democratic Senators – including the Senate President – winning an open Senate seat, defeating five incumbent Democratic Assemblymembers, winning three open Assembly seats, and picking up county seats in Gloucester and Passaic.
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In 2021, gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli won:
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All six congressional districts Republicans held as recently as 2016
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51 of 53 municipalities that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020
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All 36 towns where Trump beat Clinton in 2016, but that Murphy won in 2017
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All 18 towns that voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020 but backed Murphy in 2017
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In 2023, without Ciattarelli on top of the ticket:
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Senate Democrats won 48 towns that Murphy lost to Ciattarelli in 2021
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The overall statewide vote swung nearly 6% in the Democrats favor
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Republicans gave back nearly every gain that was made in 2021
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Republicans lost seats during Bramnick’s tenure as GOP Assembly Leader.
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Republicans went from 32 seats in 2013, to 26 seats in 2017, before getting back to 28 seats in 2019; an overall net loss of four seats.
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When Bramnick moved on to run for State Senate during the 2021 elections, Republicans – led by Ciattarelli’s statewide presence – reached 34 seats in the Assembly.
As for Bill Spadea, well, he’s never won anything.
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In 2004, Spadea limped to 39.7% of the vote against ultra-liberal Congressman Rush Holt in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District.
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While most candidates don’t brag about not breaking 40%, Spadea claims in his own bio that he “beat expectations.” But, compared to his most recent defeat, 40% looks pretty good.
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In 2012, Spadea ran in the Special Joint Republican County Convention – ironically in an effort to become Jack Ciattarelli’s running mate (!) – and lost 75% to 25%, including losing his own hometown.
(Sources: New Jersey Division of Elections, NJGlobe.com, Ballotpedia, BillSpadea.com)